Effect of rising gas prices on Amtrak ridership in summer of '22

[mp492_5]

It won’t matter, too much trouble to see what day it runs and finding a connection and what day it runs. I’ll just drive a breath naturally.

 

[thetourman]

Why would you need that much time?

Due to a four-hour drive on an interstate that sees a lot of slowdowns and crashes. That would pad my schedule for traffic, parking etc.

 

[cirdan]

I have cut it so close that I've actually purchased my ticket with the app while sitting on the train. You gotta be fast to do that in Baltimore, because almost as soon as the strain starts moving, it enters a tunnel, and then there's no cell or wifi signal for a while.

So the system allows you to buy a ticket even after the train has left the starting station of your trip?

 

[cirdan]

Someone already touched on this and it has been discussed in other AU threads - rental cars. Unless one doesn't need transportation at the destination, I'm not sure gas prices have reached the "tipping point" yet where people will automatically abandon driving in favor of Amtrak (or flying for that matter). Rental vehicles currently aren't cheap, you still have to fuel them and there are reports of shortages when picking one up. It's something to consider in addition to your fare versus having your own vehicle with known cost, reliability, etc.

This is true.

OTOH the likes of Uber are heavily undercutting the prices of taxis, and depending where you are going and how much local transportation you will need while you stay there, this may be cheaper and less hassle than a rental car.

 

[jis]

So the system allows you to buy a ticket even after the train has left the starting station of your trip?

I have done that out of NHV. Could not get it from the web site, but the Conductor who I had asked permission of before getting on the train had hinted that I would need to call, which I did, and got a ticket as we were passing the second MNRR station after leaving NHV. Yeah! Try that today! You'll probably be in New York before you get the ticket

 

[Rover]

Historically I seem to recall that a sustained, significant increase in gasoline prices has resulted in higher Amtrak ridership.

So my guess is Yes (assuming there is indeed a sustained, significant increase in gasoline prices, as assumed in the question).

I filled up last month at $3.299 using regular for the Shell ("Top Tier Detergent grade) gasoline that my car manufacturer recommends.

TOP TIER™ Gasoline Brands

 

[Willbridge]

I've been checking on fares for routes that I'm most familiar with and in the short run -- Sunday, March 6th, tomorrow -- there's just a hint of pricing response to demand creeping up on the Cascades. It's harder to watch for trends on the long-distance lines due to the weird effects of less than daily service, including after effects.

But here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0700 GL $31
0800 FB $25
0820 AT $36/75
1035 FB $17
1200 AT $65/85
1300 FB $17
1556 AT $65/85/186
1845 GL $34
1915 FB $17
1925 AT $36/85

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines.

Flix also has higher fares for stops at Sea-Tac and UofW. They charge the lowest fares for the Seattle stop near King Street Station.

And here's PDX to SPK:

0800 FB $47 via Seattle
0950 GL $71 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $58/--/183

 

[dlagrua]

I do not see Amtrak ridership increasing because of high gasoline prices unless the whole system is back on a 5 day schedule.

 

[Tlcooper44]

I do not see Amtrak ridership increasing because of high gasoline prices unless the whole system is back on a 5 day schedule.

Yeah, I do think there is some merit to this thought.
Unless gas becomes utterly unreasonable (above $6pg in most states), I don't think we will see huge differences.
Cars are just too necessary in the infrastructure that America has chosen to build, and a slight monetary change won't cause the majority of people to opt for a less time efficient form of travel (in most places).

I'd love to see rail ridership up as much as anyone, but I simply don't see it happening.

 

[BlackDiamond]

There is a lot I could say about our crazy energy policies and the misguided attempt to force a conversion away from fossil fuels before our infrastructure is ready for such a change, but this has nothing to do with Amtrak so I'll drop it.

I think that as long as we have this crazy cancellation of trains and the 5 day a week LD schedules I don't see many additional people taking the train outside of maybe the NEC where there is still some semblance of a rational service pattern.

 

[Barb Stout]

Will the increase in oil and gas prices affect how much Amtrak charges for their trips? Will it cause an increase in Amtrak prices? Is there a built-in price differential between electrified routes and those using diesel?

 

[John Bredin]

I think that as long as we have this crazy cancellation of trains and the 5 day a week LD schedules I don't see many additional people taking the train outside of maybe the NEC where there is still some semblance of a rational service pattern.

California? Midwest?

 

[rs9]

Should Amtrak keep prices stable to attract ridership despite higher fuel prices? That seems like a key question here.

What has Amtrak done in the past during severe price increases?

 

[tgstubbs1]

Should Amtrak keep prices stable to attract ridership despite higher fuel prices? That seems like a key question here.

What has Amtrak done in the past during severe price increases?

I would guess it depends on how much fuel is part of Amtrak' s total costs.

Not near as much as airlines fuel costs.

 

[cirdan]

Yeah, I do think there is some merit to this thought.
Unless gas becomes utterly unreasonable (above $6pg in most states), I don't think we will see huge differences.
Cars are just too necessary in the infrastructure that America has chosen to build, and a slight monetary change won't cause the majority of people to opt for a less time efficient form of travel (in most places).

I'd love to see rail ridership up as much as anyone, but I simply don't see it happening.

I agree.

But the original question was whether Amtrak can gain additional riders, not whether people will stop driving.

So maybe there are people who cannot reasonably switch to Amtrak, but there are probably also people who can. The question is, will higher gas prices help some of them make that switch.

I think the answer must undoubtedly be yes.

 

[MARC Rider]

I think that as long as we have this crazy cancellation of trains and the 5 day a week LD schedules I don't see many additional people taking the train outside of maybe the NEC where there is still some semblance of a rational service pattern.

Um, NEC service has been pretty severely disrupted and curtailed, too. A lot less capacity available when the trains are only running every 2 hours instead of every hour.

 

[Willbridge]

I would guess it depends on how much fuel is part of Amtrak' s total costs.

Not near as much as airlines fuel costs.

You hit on an important point that is often overlooked. Petroleum price increases are more important as a component of airline operating costs than railway operating costs.
In the two 70's era oil crises, Amtrak and intercity bus lines with fixed tariffs had sell-outs and added capacity when they were able to do so. Airlines trimmed off low-productivity services.

With the development of demand-based pricing the tendency has been to just raise or lower fares. Fuel prices are capable of forcing higher air fares. That will allow surface carriers to charge more.

 

[jis]

Moderator’s Note: A large number of posts on the general topic of what Amtrak could do to increase ridership have been moved to a new thread on that subject:

https://www.amtraktrains.com/threads/ideas-about-increasing-amtrak-ridership.81417/
Please limit posts in this thread to the effect of higher gas prices on Amtrak ridership, and go to the more general thread to discuss what Amtrak could do to raise ridership including how it could potentially take advantage of the opportunity presented by higher gas prices. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.

This thread is now open for posting.

 

[wildchicken13]

Does anyone have an opinion on whether or not rising gas prices will result in an increase in Amtrak ridership during the peak summer vacation months? (Out here in East San Diego County, gas is selling for over $5 a gallon!)

If anything, high gas prices will simply encourage more people to buy electric vehicles. I am already starting to see more electric vehicles on the road, even before the whole oil debacle. Not just Tesla, either. Ford, GMC, Chevy, Nissan, etc. all have EV lines.

Put another way, I don't ride Amtrak because gas is expensive, I ride Amtrak because I don't have a car.

 

[MARC Rider]

Put another way, I don't ride Amtrak because gas is expensive, I ride Amtrak because I don't have a car.

I agree. I don't ride Amtrak because gas is expensive, I ride Amtrak because I hate driving on I-95, especially though the Philly, New York, and Boston metro areas.

Consider this:

The average car is driven 15,000 miles a year. At 30 mpg, that's 500 gallons of gasoline one needs to buy.

At $2.00 a gallon, that's a total gasoline cost for the year of $1,000
At $3.00 a gallon, a total gasoline cost of $1,500
At $4.00 a gallon, total gasoline cost is $2,000

As a note, my auto insurance premiums are about $2,000 a year for each of my cars.
Also note that the IRS allows a standard mileage rate that people can use to estimate the operating expenses of their automobiles used for business. This is 58.5 cents per mile. At 15,000 miles per year, that would mean that the total expenses (including gas) of operating a car would be $8,775. This is above and beyond the purchase price, interest on the car loan and depreciation losses.

I'm sure that there are many people for whom a couple hundred dollar per year increase in fuel costs could prevent them from driving, but I think that it won't have much of an effect on most drivers, except for increase in complaining. First, there aren't many alternatives, and also, if there are alternatives, the alternatives are also getting more expensive. As an example, I bought an Acela ticket Baltimore to Boston last December, it was $125. I bought an Acela ticket New York to Baltimore two weeks ago, and it was $250. Even a lot of Northeast Regional coach trips between Baltimore and New York exceed $100. Even at $4.00 a gallon, my 30 mpg car will only burn about 13 gallons for the 400 mile round trip, which would cost about $54. If gas went back down to $3.50, the fuel cost would be $46. By the way, the tolls, in each direction for the trip, are close to $40. Using the IRS standard mileage rate, the total cost for the 400 mile round trip is about $235, which means that a Northeast Regional ride might, indeed be cheaper than driving. But some of these operating costs, like insurance and maintenance are incurred whether you make the trip of not.

In any event, this is a little convoluted, but I don't think the kind of gas price increases we're seeing are going to make too much of a difference in mode shift. Other factors are probably more important, like tolls and traffic levels.

 

[Sidney]

Just booked a low bucket on the TE/SL from Bloomington to LA in October for $448 for a roomette. Never thought I would see that price again. 3 nights 7 meals(4 flex). With the price of gas this is quite a bargain.

 

[Willbridge]

There are some hints in the reservation system out of PDX and a report here regarding CHI-MKE that the oil price rise is pushing rail travel. Or is it the fading pandemic influences?

I've been doing some scratch paper work that suggests that $5 a gallon puts a single traveler into the category once promoted on the PDX<>SEA Pool, where the out of pocket cost for gas was more than the rail coach or bus fare. The difference between now and then is that "then" they added rolling stock, and "now" they raise the fare.

 

[John Bredin]

Amtrak will be able to add rolling stock in the medium-term as (1) more of the new cars come online in California and the Midwest, and (2) new hiring brings the maintenance and repair staff up to full force, but both processes are at their early stages of completion (the hiring hopefully faster than the CalIDOT cars depending on applicants' experience) and will take a few months to come to a full boil (hence my use of medium-term).

 

[tgstubbs1]

They cited AAA survey on the news reporting a majority of drivers will do something when fuel prices exceed $4.00/gal.

They didn't say what people would do but surely some of them will consider Amtrak.

 

[MARC Rider]

There are some hints in the reservation system out of PDX and a report here regarding CHI-MKE that the oil price rise is pushing rail travel. Or is it the fading pandemic influences?

I've been doing some scratch paper work that suggests that $5 a gallon puts a single traveler into the category once promoted on the PDX<>SEA Pool, where the out of pocket cost for gas was more than the rail coach or bus fare. The difference between now and then is that "then" they added rolling stock, and "now" they raise the fare.

looks like rail advocates are going to need to have the politicians push Amtrak into adding rolling stock and keeping fares low so that they can increase the rail market share and keep people out of their cars and out of the short haul air routes.