I think this is already the case for Baltimore/Washington to New York, at least with regards to Northeast Regional coach. Of course, this route has some pretty stiff tolls on the highways (like ~$80 round trip) to add to the gas price, plus, of course, the "thrill" of having to drive the New Jersey Turnpike and the tunnels and bridges into New York itself.
Effect of rising gas prices on Amtrak ridership in summer of '22
- Thread starter Eric in East County
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When people plan their vacations, do they still budget how much they can afford to spend for gas, food, lodging, etc. while traveling to their destinations? If we were trying to budget how much it would cost us to drive from Los Angeles to Chicago and back next summer, we could not even begin to “guesstimate” how much gas will be selling for by then and what our fuel bill would be. Then too, with inflation the way it is today, it’s almost certain that the cost for food and lodging next summer will be higher than it is today, making them harder to budget for, too. Although our Southwest Chief tickets cost us considerably more than they did last year, at least we know what it’s costing us to get from Los Angeles to Chicago and back.
I wonder what your cost per mile is? Then throw in 3 nights accommodation...
west point
Engineer
A thought. Most persons will not change their driving habits. However, if just 1% decided to travel by Amtrak it would have every train sold out.
That's what we went through in Oregon in the '73-'74 crisis. And politicians who had been ignoring railways and buses were outraged that the system struggled so. By 1976, it was past history and we got on with two steps forward, 1½ steps back.
Checking on fares for routes that I'm most familiar with and in the short run -- Sunday, March 13th, tomorrow -- there's just a hint of pricing response to demand creeping up on the Cascades. It's harder to watch for trends on the long-distance lines due to the weird effects of less than daily service.
But here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:
0800 FB $32
0820 AT $55/75
0950 GL $30
1035 FB $17
1200 AT $65/SO
1300 FB $27
1656 AT $36/56/282
1915 FB $20
1925 AT $36/56
1950 GL $28
AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines.
Flix also has higher fares for stops at Sea-Tac and UofW. They charge the lowest fares for the Seattle stop near King Street Station.
And here's PDX to SPK:
0800 FB $62 via Seattle
0820 AT $SO/--/$384 chng at Seattle
0950 GL $78 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $76/--/$230
But here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:
0800 FB $32
0820 AT $55/75
0950 GL $30
1035 FB $17
1200 AT $65/SO
1300 FB $27
1656 AT $36/56/282
1915 FB $20
1925 AT $36/56
1950 GL $28
AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines.
Flix also has higher fares for stops at Sea-Tac and UofW. They charge the lowest fares for the Seattle stop near King Street Station.
And here's PDX to SPK:
0800 FB $62 via Seattle
0820 AT $SO/--/$384 chng at Seattle
0950 GL $78 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $76/--/$230
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This certainly is pertinent to our conversation.
If prices to continue to rise, perhaps we will see an uptake in Amtrak ticket purchases, especially along the NEC.
Now whether Amtrak has the ability to capitalize on that and return to full service is another question entirely.
user 29618
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Was just planning a trip to upstate NY to visit family.
Amtrak has a station in their town, but no train at present.
So train is out of the question for now.
If there were a train, it would require an overnight in NYC. Hotels are expensive.
Gas at ~$5.00 / gallon would be less than half the price of two train seats, and with two people driving, it would take less time and the overnight could be done in some place less expensive than NYC.
Figuring in wear and tear on a car for a trip you make once a year is a waste of time. Owning and driving a car here is not optional. There's no train, no bus, no taxi, no Uber within 60 miles. I'm paying for the car even when it sits in the driveway, so might as well save money and use that vehicle. A couple extra thousand miles isn't going to do much damage or affect the resale value. Not to mention that with a car, I leave when ready, instead of waiting for a train at 2 a.m. at a deserted station.
So, for people like me who can drive and who compare prices, the answer is no.
Amtrak has a station in their town, but no train at present.
So train is out of the question for now.
If there were a train, it would require an overnight in NYC. Hotels are expensive.
Gas at ~$5.00 / gallon would be less than half the price of two train seats, and with two people driving, it would take less time and the overnight could be done in some place less expensive than NYC.
Figuring in wear and tear on a car for a trip you make once a year is a waste of time. Owning and driving a car here is not optional. There's no train, no bus, no taxi, no Uber within 60 miles. I'm paying for the car even when it sits in the driveway, so might as well save money and use that vehicle. A couple extra thousand miles isn't going to do much damage or affect the resale value. Not to mention that with a car, I leave when ready, instead of waiting for a train at 2 a.m. at a deserted station.
So, for people like me who can drive and who compare prices, the answer is no.
Welcome to AU!
If you want us to comment on this, it might help to be more specific. Depending on what routes/where you are going in the country, the train is much less expensive than driving in certain cases. Obviously, yours isnt the case (taking your word for it. you didn't list any routes, stations, or cities, just overall NY State).
Given what you've just written, it seems entirely reasonable that you would drive. The way this country is built, it makes sense to drive most of the time.
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Upstate NY and "Amtrak has a station in their town, but no train at present" sounds like the Adirondack route north of Ft. Edward, NY
jis
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MODERATOR'S NOTE: A gentle reminder that this thread is about effect of gas price on Amtrak ridership. Please let us not turn it into another general travel advice thread or an argument over whether car is better than train or not. Thank you for you understanding and cooperation.
Devil's Advocate
⠀⠀⠀
Although diesel and petrol have seen little or no reduction in pricing at the consumer level crude oil futures have fallen up to 30% in the last week. This is just an FYI though and spot market pricing can shoot back up and reach new highs without notice. Makes me wonder how Amtrak buys their fuel.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
user 29618
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Gas prices will have little to no effect on ridership.
If you live where Amtrak has good, frequent service, you have already decided that you will, or won't, use the train, taking into account things like traffic hassles, parking expense, convenience to work/home, car ownership, etc. All of which are a bigger factor than gas prices.
A good advertising campaign might convince some people who are unaware of Amtrak to give it a try, but few will stick with it for long.
For the rest of us, which is most of the USA, none of those factors matter very much. Only rarely can Amtrak take us were we want to go, unless we just love trains and plan our trips around them. In that case, Amtrak was already the cheapest way to travel, and also the most expensive - depending upon the level of comfort you're willing to pay for. In neither case would an increase in gas prices make a difference in your decision.
Otherwise, when Amtrak does go where we need to go, it's pretty inconvenient.
For example, I have to drive 75 miles to the nearest station, wait for a midnight train (which may be hours late) and pay for parking while I'm gone. So I figure that for any trip less than 300 or 400 miles, I'm better off just driving. Not going to do that on a regular basis, and once or twice a year isn't going to impact Amtrak's ridership.
If you live where Amtrak has good, frequent service, you have already decided that you will, or won't, use the train, taking into account things like traffic hassles, parking expense, convenience to work/home, car ownership, etc. All of which are a bigger factor than gas prices.
A good advertising campaign might convince some people who are unaware of Amtrak to give it a try, but few will stick with it for long.
For the rest of us, which is most of the USA, none of those factors matter very much. Only rarely can Amtrak take us were we want to go, unless we just love trains and plan our trips around them. In that case, Amtrak was already the cheapest way to travel, and also the most expensive - depending upon the level of comfort you're willing to pay for. In neither case would an increase in gas prices make a difference in your decision.
Otherwise, when Amtrak does go where we need to go, it's pretty inconvenient.
For example, I have to drive 75 miles to the nearest station, wait for a midnight train (which may be hours late) and pay for parking while I'm gone. So I figure that for any trip less than 300 or 400 miles, I'm better off just driving. Not going to do that on a regular basis, and once or twice a year isn't going to impact Amtrak's ridership.
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west point
Engineer
Naturally there is many persons who cannot take advantage of Amtrak with these high gasoline prices. However, there may be only a 1% number of persons who can take advantage of Amtrak. Then Amtrak will have more demand than it can meet. The long range effect may help Amtrak to expand.
Both can be true.
I’m on an chamber orchestra tour currently, and many are opting to drive, despite every city being a destination along the NEC except for Portland ME.
I’m definitely taking the train, and spreading the word. Many of them haven’t even considered the train or that with parking and gas combined, it would be cheaper to do it.
Thank you. For those that live in an area where this is possible and you feel comfortable in your recommendation please do this. In many ways it's more comfortable and easier than other modes in certain areas, but there's not enough awareness.
In the short run -- Sunday, March 20th, on Wednesday night -- rather than waiting for Saturday night, with Spring Break added to high gas prices.
Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:
0800 FB $32
0820 AT $65/SO
0950 GL $24
1035 FB $37
1200 AT SO/SO
1300 FB $52
1556 AT SO/$85/$216
1915 FB $22
1925 AT $55/$85
1950 GL $25
AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.
Flix also has higher fares for stops at Sea-Tac and UofW. They usually charge the lowest fares for the Seattle stop near King Street Station.
And here's PDX to SPK:
0800 FB $52 via Seattle
0820 AT $192/SO/$339 chng at Seattle
0950 GL $65 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT SO/--/$274
Note that some of these fluctuated while I was gathering them.
Also note that the bus demand ramps up later than rail. Experienced rail travelers learn (the hard way) that Amtrak may sell out. In the pre-Amtrak years, extra coaches were added for these peaks, because fares remained fixed.
With respect, I hope the food quality will be not reduced below what it is now. Since I started riding trains in the 1960's, food service seems to be at an all time low. I admit my bias is due to the fact I am travelling these days on the Silvers and the Crescent and the "flex" dining that comes with that travel.
It seems, in my opinion, since the Arab oil embargo of 1973 and subsequent second oil shock in 1979 and all the many, many, many subsequent gas and oil "shocks" since then, gas prices will likely NOT alter the protocol of the driving population. I lived in California in 1973. Gas price on the day before the embargo was about $.35/gallon. Today's price: ????. None of these "shocks" seem to have a significant result. Again, my opinion.
Having been in on the action since the 1972-75 Energy Crisis, as I described in earlier messages, there is a cycle. When prices reach the level where behavior, government policies, private alternatives, etc. begin to change, then the oil prices back off. Like the tide going out, a few new energy saving measures remain on the beach, the rest are washed out to sea. For example, the San Joaquins and Portland LRT and the Cascades are all descendants of the shock in '72-'75.
In 1974, Oregon state employees chartered buses for the PDX<>SLM commute. When I drafted the idea in 1973 it was filed because everyone knew that people would keep driving. When gas was short, interest developed, and when gas prices were allowed to rise, the operation peaked at three buses. When gas prices eased off and federal subsidies for vanpools were introduced, the chartered buses faded away. Noted passengers included the Deputy Attorney General and the Chief Justice of the Oregon Supreme Court. The Attorney General rode for a while when his license was suspended.
cirdan
Engineer
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I for one wouldn't object to paying more for better food.
Price isn't everything.
Anyway, when you're somewhere like on a train, the raw cost of ingredients is probably tiny compared to the incremental costs caused by staffing, logistics, handling, provision of on-train cooling, storage, other facilities etc etc.
So even if the cost of raw ingredients doubled, I don't think that would make the food price rise by more than a dollar or so, all other things remaining equal.
That's true for all forms of commercial food service. The attitude that you're paying for the food when you go out to eat is one reason why restaurant food portions are so large and why obesity is common.
Here are the end of the day departures PDX>SEA for today, Sunday, March 20th. As noted previously, trains were filling up by Wednesday, except for the last trip. The first column of fares shows offerings as of Wednesday, the second column shows what was available about 1730.
1915 FB $22 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SO
1925 AT $55/$85 >>>>>>>>>>>> SO/SO
1950 GL $25 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $32
AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.
Greyhound has the most sophisticated ticket pricing. It takes a sudden surge to sell out their buses. Predictable demand just results in higher and higher prices.
In regard to the question posed for this thread:
Will rising gas prices result in an increase in Amtrak ridership next summer?
The answer is "maybe" -- gas prices right now are at the level where they usually crest. That is the level where people start looking for alternatives. From the routes that I'm following, ridership already is up. If this summer prices increase further, then the answer turns to "yes". However, the increase can't be huge because of the equipment situation.
1915 FB $22 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SO
1925 AT $55/$85 >>>>>>>>>>>> SO/SO
1950 GL $25 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $32
AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.
Greyhound has the most sophisticated ticket pricing. It takes a sudden surge to sell out their buses. Predictable demand just results in higher and higher prices.
In regard to the question posed for this thread:
Will rising gas prices result in an increase in Amtrak ridership next summer?
The answer is "maybe" -- gas prices right now are at the level where they usually crest. That is the level where people start looking for alternatives. From the routes that I'm following, ridership already is up. If this summer prices increase further, then the answer turns to "yes". However, the increase can't be huge because of the equipment situation.
In the short run -- Sunday, March 27th, on Wednesday night -- rather than waiting for Saturday night, with Spring Break added to high gas prices.
Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:
0800 FB $42
0820 AT $65/$85
0950 GL $33
1035 FB $32
1200 AT SO/SO
1300 FB $42
1556 AT SO/$85/$153
1915 FB $25
1925 AT $36/$85
1950 GL $31
AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.
Flix also has higher fares for stops at Sea-Tac and U of W. They usually charge the lowest fares for the Seattle stop near King Street Station.
And here's PDX to SPK:
0800 FB $82 via Seattle
0820 AT $192/$161/$359 chng at Seattle
0950 GL $62 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $76/--/$183
Thursday night, 24 Mar 22
Here's what Amtrak is offering for Sunday, March 27th SEA>PDX. It's hard to tell how gas prices are affecting ridership when even premium fares can't prevent sell-outs capping ridership counts.
Here's what Amtrak is offering for Sunday, March 27th SEA>PDX. It's hard to tell how gas prices are affecting ridership when even premium fares can't prevent sell-outs capping ridership counts.
