Effect of rising gas prices on Amtrak ridership in summer of '22

[Eric in East County]

We’re now close enough to Memorial Day and the start of the summer vacation season for people to start making their travel plans, including making advance reservations on Amtrak trains. Is there any way for us to learn if Amtrak long distance trains scheduled for next summer are already starting to sell out? If so, will Amtrak add more coaches and sleepers to its long-distance trains to bring them back up to their pre-COVID lengths to meet the demand?

 

[Willbridge]

We’re now close enough to Memorial Day and the start of the summer vacation season for people to start making their travel plans, including making advance reservations on Amtrak trains. Is there any way for us to learn if Amtrak long distance trains scheduled for next summer are already starting to sell out? If so, will Amtrak add more coaches and sleepers to its long-distance trains to bring them back up to their pre-COVID lengths to meet the demand?

I think the only way to learn about sell-outs is to check in the reservations site from time to time. And, if something is sold out early, there always is a chance that someone else may cancel a booking and that space will be briefly available.

Based on experience over the years, Amtrak will not add extra cars immediately, due to:

1. Too small an active fleet.
2. Bad order cars backlogged.
3. Inertia.

If the high demand continues long enough, input from employees in the field, combined with input from Congress, will result in a few more cars in service. For example, there have been peak periods when an extra sleeper or an extra coach have been added to the consist of the California Zephyr between DEN and CHI.

 

[Freddy320]

I cant speak for anyone else but I hope ridership increase's. Amtrak to me isnt that bad of an option to getting somewhere or vacation purposes, and prices aren't that bad to begin with. With rising gas prices you could get a cheap ticket to your destination and rent a vehicle to run around town for how ever long and far. Gas prices nearing five dollars and up word would kill your wallet obviously stating even limiting cash for a vacation and what you may or may not do. But it all depends on the person and how they think of Amtrak.

 

[Sidney]

I cant speak for anyone else but I hope ridership increase's. Amtrak to me isnt that bad of an option to getting somewhere or vacation purposes, and prices aren't that bad to begin with. With rising gas prices you could get a cheap ticket to your destination and rent a vehicle to run around town for how ever long and far. Gas prices nearing five dollars and up word would kill your wallet obviously stating even limiting cash for a vacation and what you may or may not do. But it all depends on the person and how they think of Amtrak.

We booked the Zephyr in July. It's on a Sunday,one of two days they are not currently running. Hopefully seven day service is back by then. We paid $555 from Chi to Sac. Two people. Seven meals. Two nights accomodation. With the price of gas in the stratosphere this is quite the bargain. We intend renting a car in California and head to Glacier and Yellowstone before flying back from Sac. That's where the cost factor kicks in.

 

[Freddy320]

We booked the Zephyr in July. It's on a Sunday,one of two days they are not currently running. Hopefully seven day service is back by then. We paid $555 from Chi to Sac. Two people. Seven meals. Two nights accomodation. With the price of gas in the stratosphere this is quite the bargain. We intend renting a car in California and head to Glacier and Yellowstone before flying back from Sac. That's where the cost factor kicks in.

that doesnt sound to bad at all, i hope you guys have an amazing trip

 

[Willbridge]

Here's Sunday, March 27th, on Saturday afternoon -- with Spring Break added to high gas prices.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0800 FB $42
0820 AT $65/$85
0950 GL $38
1035 FB $37
1200 AT SO/SO
1300 FB $37
1556 AT SO/SO/$153
1915 FB $37
1925 AT $65/SO
1950 GL $38

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO= Sold Out.

And here's PDX to SPK:

0800 FB $82 via Seattle
0820 AT $192/$212/$359 chng at Seattle
0950 GL $72 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $58/--/$324

 

[George Harris]

Rising gas prices will reasonably result in more inquires, but unless and until, hopefully, they get to AT LEAST daily service on all routes and preferably two a day, it is not likely to result in much increase in ridership. Plus, how user friendly is the system to inquires as it stands right now?

 

[Willbridge]

Rising gas prices will reasonably result in more inquires, but unless and until, hopefully, they get to AT LEAST daily service on all routes and preferably two a day, it is not likely to result in much increase in ridership. Plus, how user friendly is the system to inquires as it stands right now?

This reminds me of items that I omitted in my accounts of previous oil spikes or shortages. We learned that it takes longer to book a trip with new customers or when the main line is sold out than it does under normal demand. That is true of computers and agents. Breakdowns may result.

Another item: demand goes up the greatest on the lines that are already heaviest. This is partly due to the public's familiarity with the service on main lines. And main lines are likelier to have multiple trains and classes of service. It's one of the reasons that I'm following the Cascades in the present situation. There is more awareness of them than on many other routes, partly due to their continuity from the Pool line days.

 

[Willbridge]

Here's Sunday, April 3rd, as it appears on Wednesday night -- with high gas prices and the tail end of Spring Break.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0800 FB $32
0820 AT $36/SO
0950 GL $22
1005 FB $20
1200 AT $65/SO
1300 FB $20
1556 AT SO/$65/$186
1830 FB $22
1925 AT $36/$85
1950 GL $24

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.

And here's PDX to SPK:

0800 FB $72 via Seattle
0820 AT $134/SO/$565 chng at Seattle
0950 GL $59 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $76/--/$183

Note that the 0820 and 1200 AT trips both have bus connections to Vancouver, BC and to Bellingham. The 0820 comes through from Eugene and the 1200 has a bus connection from Eugene.

 

[MIrailfan]

Does anyone have an opinion on whether or not rising gas prices will result in an increase in Amtrak ridership during the peak summer vacation months? (Out here in East San Diego County, gas is selling for over $5 a gallon!)

I believe so.

 

[Willbridge]

Here's Sunday, April 10th, as it appears on Wednesday night -- with high gas prices.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0800 FB $22
0820 AT $36/SO
0950 GL $23
1005 FB $22
1150 FB $22
1200 AT $65/SO
1300 FB $22
1556 AT SO/$85/$216
1830 FB $22
1925 AT $36/SO
1950 GL $24

And here's PDX to SPK:

0800 FB $72 via Seattle
0820 AT $112/SO/$310 chng at Seattle
0950 GL $62 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $58/--/$183

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.

 

[BlackDiamond]

Lately gas prices have moderated some, even falling below $4 around here. Perhaps due to the SPR release?
Not sure how long this will last as the effects of the embargoing of Russian oil begin to kick in.

 

[Willbridge]

Lately gas prices have moderated some, even falling below $4 around here. Perhaps due to the SPR release?
Not sure how long this will last as the effects of the embargoing of Russian oil begin to kick in.

So far everyone is following the script. As prices rise, they hit a plateau at which energy saving decisions start kicking in. In the meantime, politicians profess outrage and energy company officials plead for an end to regulations. Now we're at that plateau. In this case, we can switch metaphors to waiting for the other (Russian) boot to drop.

In regard to energy saving, it's fascinating to learn the ways people can save when money and/or time is involved. On our expedition from Nob Hill to Eastridge Mall in the 1974 Energy Crisis on a Saturday we found that the Santa Clara County transit system had to double-head the last bus run from the mall because of all the kids whose parents told them to take the bus instead of getting a ride. In our 2008 expedition to determine the condition of stations on the Pioneer route my girlfriend discovered that quilt shops all along the way were thriving. Either people were turning down the heat or they were staying home and finishing that sewing project that had been gathering dust.

One difference in this cycle is that Amtrak is the least prepared to pick up business that it's ever been since the frozen steam heat cars were retired. As the regular checks on fares and bookings reported here show, a typical price cycle is enough to result in sold out trains.


Quilt shop as seen from the former Mountain Home station site. Amtrak says
"Stay home and quilt."

 

[Willbridge]

Here's the Sunday evening clean-up trips PDX>SEA. I'm not sure what is happening, but it looks as though Flixbus switched from demand-based pricing to adding trips and keeping the lowest fares in the market. They have been doing a lot of on-line advertising.

The first price is as of Wednesday night for this Sunday. The price to the right is as of tonight.

1830 FB $22 >>>>>>>>>>>>> $22 (bus shown "mostly full" north of Olympia)
1925 AT $36/SO>>>>>>>>>>> $65 / $85 one left (train shown 90% full at 1909 PDT)
1950 GL $24 >>>>>>>>>>>>> $34

 

[jebr]

Here's the Sunday evening clean-up trips PDX>SEA. I'm not sure what is happening, but it looks as though Flixbus switched from demand-based pricing to adding trips and keeping the lowest fares in the market. They have been doing a lot of on-line advertising.

I find it interesting that Flixbus is pushing so hard to keep fares at that $22 mark instead of letting it go up based on demand. Given that they own Greyhound, any "competition" there would wind up in their pockets either way.

 

[daybeers]

I find it interesting that Flixbus is pushing so hard to keep fares at that $22 mark instead of letting it go up based on demand. Given that they own Greyhound, any "competition" there would wind up in their pockets either way.

It's the opposite approach of Amtrak, who's now blocking some Saver fares on Fridays & Sundays on the NEC even if the train is 0% full!

 

[jebr]

It's the opposite approach of Amtrak, who's now blocking some Saver fares on Fridays & Sundays on the NEC even if the train is 0% full!

On the plus side, I noticed that's no longer a hard and fast rule. I was able to get a saver fare on a Friday in July on the NEC which was almost completely blacked out before.

 

[daybeers]

On the plus side, I noticed that's no longer a hard and fast rule. I was able to get a saver fare on a Friday in July on the NEC which was almost completely blacked out before.

There are two buckets in NEC saver fares so you probably got the higher one.

 

[jebr]

There are two buckets in NEC saver fares so you probably got the higher one.

It was $26 NYP - BAL - not sure if that's the lower or higher of the two buckets but it's the lowest I've seen outside of the very-limited-time sales and such. I was a bit surprised to see it too as it seemed as though pricing had taken a big jump a couple weeks ago.

 

[daybeers]

It was $26 NYP - BAL - not sure if that's the lower or higher of the two buckets but it's the lowest I've seen outside of the very-limited-time sales and such. I was a bit surprised to see it too as it seemed as though pricing had taken a big jump a couple weeks ago.

Wow, you're correct in that's the lowest bucket for that trip. Good on you for finding it on a Friday.

 

[MIrailfan]

Amtrak ridership is already up so is BART. B(ay Area Rapid Transit.

 

[Willbridge]

Here's Easter Sunday, April 17th, as it appears on Wednesday night -- with high gas prices.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0800 FB $27
0820 AT $36/SO
0950 GL $30
1005 FB $27
1150 FB $27
1200 AT $65/SO
1500 FB $27
1556 AT SO/$85/$186
1830 FB $27
1925 AT $55/$85
1950 GL $28

And here's PDX to SPK:

0800 FB $57 via Seattle
0820 AT $112/SO/$219 chng at Seattle
0950 GL $68 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $58/--/$183

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.

Note: I've found that PDX>VAN excludes Train 28 from the choices offered. Same on Train 27, although I can understand omitting the westbound for schedule adherence reasons.

 

[Willbridge]

Here's the Easter Sunday evening clean-up trips PDX>SEA. Flixbus switched from demand-based pricing on this corridor to instead adding trips and keeping the lowest fares in the market. The only exception has been when the bus is shown as "almost full".

The first price is as of last Wednesday night for this Sunday. The price to the right is as of tonight at 1630. The furthest right is as of tonight at 1715.

1830 FB $27>>>>>>>>>>>>>$27>>>>>>>>>>>>$35
1925 AT $55/$85>>>>>>>>>>$65/SO>>>>>>>>>$65/SO
1950 GL $28>>>>>>>>>>>>>$40>>>>>>>>>>>>$40

While the PDX<>SEA rate remains low, trips for PDX<>EUG are fluctuating as usual, resulting in higher prices than the PDX<>EUG Amtrak and Thruway trips. The opposite is true on PDX<>SEA.

The Flix ad campaign for PDX<>SEA is continuing. They emphasize the $14.99+$2.50 midweek rate.

 

[Willbridge]

Here's Sunday, April 24th, as it appears on Wednesday night with high gas prices levelling off.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0800 FB $20
0820 AT $36/SO
0950 GL $22
1005 FB $20
1150 FB $20
1200 AT $55/SO
1500 FB $22
1556 AT $65/$85/$249
1830 FB $29
1925 AT $36/$85
1950 GL $22

And here's PDX to SPK:

0800 FB $48 via Seattle
0820 AT $94/SO/$266 chng at Seattle
0950 GL $59 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $58/--/$183

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.

Note that the GL website is again experimenting with showing Flixbus trips.

 

[Willbridge]

Here's Sunday, April 24th, as it appears on Wednesday night with high gas prices levelling off.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0800 FB $20
0820 AT $36/SO
0950 GL $22
1005 FB $20
1150 FB $20
1200 AT $55/SO
1500 FB $22
1556 AT $65/$85/$249
1830 FB $29
1925 AT $36/$85
1950 GL $22

And here's PDX to SPK:

0800 FB $48 via Seattle
0820 AT $94/SO/$266 chng at Seattle
0950 GL $59 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $58/--/$183

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.

Note that the GL website is again experimenting with showing Flixbus trips.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA on Sunday, April 24th, as it appeared at about 1100. The left-hand figures are from last Wednesday.

1150 FB $20 >>>>>>>>>>>> SO
1200 AT $55/SO >>>>>>>>> $65/SO
1500 FB $22 >>>>>>>>>>>> $39
1556 AT $65/$85/$249 >>>>> SO/SO/$282
1830 FB $29 >>>>>>>>>>>> SO
1925 AT $36/$85 >>>>>>>>> $55/$85
1950 GL $22 >>>>>>>>>>>> $37

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.