For the hoi polloi there's always the $161 Saver Coach fare.
Fare Buckets - and when do they increase/decrease?
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Or we don’t want to hear the answer. The juries still out on that one. I’m hopeful the hold on the BOD nominations announced this week will help foster improvements to all aspects of the national network, affordability included.
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fdaley
OBS Chief
This is really the issue. If Amtrak is holding out for high prices until the last days before the train leaves, and then switching to low buckets, it increases the risk that the room winds up empty or perhaps being sold at a severe discount through the bid-up program. It's great for last-minute travelers, but as you say, there aren't very many of them.
In the case of my family's would-be cross-country trip this winter, we wound up being deterred by high sleeper prices and instead booked a Plan B vacation that kept us in the Northeast. We would happily have gone at the prices that wound up being available in the final couple of weeks, but by then it was getting too late to make the other arrangements necessary for a major trip.
Having to fire sale inventory even 10 days in advance represents poor yield management in my mind. It is better than 1 day, yes, but it still isn't good from a revenue perspective.
These last minute drops seem to show their projections may be off even with the current inventory scarcity. It would be better to price and sell it at, say, mid or mid-low bucket at like 4 months out than hold it in higher buckets until the last minute, when it becomes obvious it won't sell, then drop it to low and having it still possibly go out empty. It looks like they need to fine tune, because if this is common, something is clearly off.
fdaley
OBS Chief
Actually, when I was checking Amtrak's site frequently for our would-be February trip, I noticed that the Empire Builder did have mid-to-low bucket rooms available on many departures even weeks in advance, particularly on the Seattle sleeper. In our case, given that southern Cal was the main destination, the savings would have been negated by needing another night in sleeper on the Coast Starlight and a hotel night as well if we went via Seattle.
The Zephyr had a few departures with decent room prices available weeks in advance, and more became available after Feb 1. It was the eastbound Chief that had nothing except the two highest buckets -- on every departure through a two-week-plus period in February -- from the time I started checking around Thanksgiving until sometime around Feb. 1. Over the first week of February, suddenly mid-to-low bucket prices began appearing on the Chief for a bunch of departures in our target period, but by then we had already begun to lock in on our Plan B trip.
The Zephyr had a few departures with decent room prices available weeks in advance, and more became available after Feb 1. It was the eastbound Chief that had nothing except the two highest buckets -- on every departure through a two-week-plus period in February -- from the time I started checking around Thanksgiving until sometime around Feb. 1. Over the first week of February, suddenly mid-to-low bucket prices began appearing on the Chief for a bunch of departures in our target period, but by then we had already begun to lock in on our Plan B trip.
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Just posted another updated bucket chart in the bucket chart thread with "iffy" estimates for all the missing fares.
The iffiest are those fore the EB Coach fares, so if anyone spots a fare above $306 or $308 please PM them to me so some of the iffiness can be taken out.
<edit> If you're looking for a bargain fluke coach fare on the EB (SEA - CHI) I just spotted a $105 Saver fare offered on 13 and 27 Jul 2023. That's 35% below the current Saver fare of $161! It's also $34 less than the Saver fare offered eight years ago!! I've a hunch some neophyte bean counter is fiddling unsupervised with these fares in Arrow.
There may be other super low fares offered. All these erratic fares do for me is confuse efforts to estimate the fares not yet found or offered.
The iffiest are those fore the EB Coach fares, so if anyone spots a fare above $306 or $308 please PM them to me so some of the iffiness can be taken out.
<edit> If you're looking for a bargain fluke coach fare on the EB (SEA - CHI) I just spotted a $105 Saver fare offered on 13 and 27 Jul 2023. That's 35% below the current Saver fare of $161! It's also $34 less than the Saver fare offered eight years ago!! I've a hunch some neophyte bean counter is fiddling unsupervised with these fares in Arrow.
There may be other super low fares offered. All these erratic fares do for me is confuse efforts to estimate the fares not yet found or offered.
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west point
Engineer
IMO simple answer. Not enough sleeper space nationwide. Why get more spaces when Gardner can get sky high prices from suckers?
It may be there are always a few last many cancellations due to many different reasons. Have seen sold out sleepers open at last minute.
Concerning your listing for bucket lists, it only applies to travel from beginning to end...I will just use one trip for example. CHI - LAX on the TE. If someone only took CHI - SAS, that wont be on the list, is this correct?
trimetbusfan
OBS Chief
yes
trimetbusfan
OBS Chief
There is definitely something new with the coach fare buckets.
I am less interested in the coach fares as I am sleeper fares, but I noticed when they first adopted the 8 bucket system on the coast starlight, I saw at least 3 (and maybe even 4) different 'saver' fares on that route! Those fares being $101, $117, and $132. (I believe I also saw $102 or $103 saver fare, but I can't find one now).
In regards to the empire builder, the same thing is going on. There are multiple saver fares. Two lower than the one on your chart.
- TODAY (4/30) - 28 (PDX-CHI) - $131 Saver/$201 Value/$473 Flexible (This is also lower than the $161/162 fare you have listed).
- TMRW (5/1) - 28 (PDX-CHI) - $106 Saver fare/$201 Value/$473 Flexible
- 5/16 - 28 (PDX-CHI) - $249 Value/$473 Flexible
- 5/23 - 28 (PDX-CHI) - $382 Value/$473 Flexible
- and the ultrea cheap saver fare is also available on 28 PDX-CHI for the same dates you mentioned, but for $106 instead of $105
That's all for now!
sporksradiant
Train Attendant
Correct.
I too would like to add a bucket list for SAS - CHI and vice versa. The LAX-CHI buckets seem very very off from the fares I'm seeing SAS-CHI - enough so I wonder if they are using a different set of buckets in light of the issues occurring with that route in & out of SAS.
If someone can explain how to approximate the buckets, I'd be happy to collect data for it.
There certainly is, and thanks for the information.
Once upon a time, the Saver Coach fare (singular) was nothing more than the low bucket Coach fare discounted by 20%. And the Save fare stayed the same until the other Coach buckets changed.
Now we got ourselves at least one train train with three different Coach fares advertised as Saver fares. I'm beginning to think . . . uh . . . jeez, I don't know what to think except fares are running amok!!
First understand that the CHI to SAS route is only 48% of the 2728Mile route from CHI to SAS to LAX. The best bucket chart is one made from fares actually offed and found by making lots and lots of dummy bookings. Some idea of an estimated fare could, I suppose, be made using the whole route fares shown on the current bucket chart for the SWC & TE and then scaling them down using the data from this chart:
But the data for this graph was collected many years ago and I've no idea how valid it may now be. But, have fun with it!
FWIW, just found a $470 coach fare offered on the EB (CHI - SEA).
On the bold assumptions there are eight "normal" fares above the three Saver fares and that the fares go in a geometric progression, the high bucket Coach fare works out to be a whopping $892!
That $892 is about $300 more than the low bucket Roomette fare making the EB and AT the only trains where a coach fare could (theoretically) cost more than a Roomette! All other LD trains with sleepers have high bucket Coach fares less than a low bucket Roomette.
Anyone spotting an EB Coach fare above $470 or $472 is encouraged to post it here.
On the bold assumptions there are eight "normal" fares above the three Saver fares and that the fares go in a geometric progression, the high bucket Coach fare works out to be a whopping $892!
That $892 is about $300 more than the low bucket Roomette fare making the EB and AT the only trains where a coach fare could (theoretically) cost more than a Roomette! All other LD trains with sleepers have high bucket Coach fares less than a low bucket Roomette.
Anyone spotting an EB Coach fare above $470 or $472 is encouraged to post it here.
FWIW...what does it mean?
I have been aware for some time of how expensive Amtrak sleeper fares have become, but continue to be shocked at the level of increases, which seem to be never ending. I have been pricing one-way Empire Builder fares between St. Paul, MN and Whitefish, MT for upcoming months through October. For this 24-hour journey, fares for roomettes are often $1,000+ and bedrooms are $2,000+ for a solo traveler! That's just one-way! Spending $2,000+ on a roomette or $4,000+ on a bedroom for a Minnesota to Montana round trip is crazy! I'm spending less for an upcoming trip to Europe which includes transatlantic airfare and a 10-day cruise.
As long as people have the wherewithal to pay those prices, they will remain high on popular, scenic routes.
Even if the rolling stock was available for additional frequency, my spidey sense tells me the prices wouldn’t change much on some routes for sleepers.
Even if the rolling stock was available for additional frequency, my spidey sense tells me the prices wouldn’t change much on some routes for sleepers.
MikeM
OBS Chief
Feel your pain. Was considering a trip on the Texas Eagle RT Fort Worth to Chicago in 2 - 3 months, wanted to travel over a weekend but flexible as to which weekend. Lots of sold out sleeper space, and the trip I was able to put together would have cost $1500. For which, no observation car, microwaved meals, and about 5X the cost of flying. Amtrak is killing the market for middle income travelers on trains at these rates.
Yep. It's not a surprise and has been the subject of much discussion here. It is apparently due to a combination of extremely constrained inventory due to Amtrak's self-inflicted equipment shortages combined with more aggressive yield management practices that take advantage of the fact that there are apparently people willing to pay high bucket prices for the small inventory of sleeper accommodations. Lower buckets are still out there, although not quite as low as before, they've recently stepped all of the buckets up in addition to moving from 5 buckets to 8 buckets. Strategies for finding lower buckets have been extensively discussed, and require regular monitoring of fares and swooping in if and when Amtrak yield management reallocates inventory. Being flexible within a travel window helps. Starting fare monitoring at 5 or 6 months out also helps. By 2 to 3 months out, if Amtrak has done an inventory reallocation at around 4-5 months out, which my personal and not statistically sound experience indicates they seem to do, any inventory allocated to lower buckets will have been sold. There have been instances noted recently that, if Amtrak still has unsold inventory a week or two out, they reallocated inventory to low bucket.
You can find that extensive discussion here:
https://www.amtraktrains.com/threads/fare-buckets-and-when-do-they-increase-decrease.84867/
You can find that extensive discussion here:
https://www.amtraktrains.com/threads/fare-buckets-and-when-do-they-increase-decrease.84867/
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Our transatlantic cruise next April lasting twelve days cost us $1900 for both of us. Toilet and shower included in the room,dressers and a king bed. Obviously all food is included which is far superior to Amtrak and entertainment is included in the price. Yes,I know this has been discussed here often, but $3000 for a bedroom on a 48 hour trip from Chicago to Seattle?
Nobody is forcing you to pay it and you didn't. But maybe someone else would. I agree the value proposition for a $3000 bedroom is not good and I wouldn't pay it either.
I know there has been a good deal of comparison to cruise lines, but in a lot of ways I don't think that is really germane. They aren't really competitors in similar markets, unless you consider "I generally want to spend my vacation on some form of multiple day transportation and don't really care what it is" a market. Comparisons of point to point FIrst Class air travel have much more equivalency from an economic standpoint, IMHO. The closest direct equivalent I can think of is the Rocky Mountaineer, which is even more expensive than either VIA or Amtrak, even at current prices.
Yes, that is shocking.
If it were me, I'd drive the 1200 miles. Two days each way. Probably $200 gas each way, one $150 motel and $ 70 food, so about $420 each way. And some mighty nice scenery.
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