Fare Buckets discussion 2023 Q4 - 2024

[Keith1951]

No bucket is ever "due" or "comes next". Inventory allocation is what Amtrak yield management does and its inner workings are a mystery. Inventory is rarely allocated across all buckets and frequently skips some. @niemi24s just helps everyone by figuring out where the current bucket price points are and publishing it. That way you know where the current price is relative to the possible prices and how bad a deal you might be getting (and therefore whether or not to buy). I have developed very rough rules of thumb I use myself for gauging when and whether yield managers for a given train are likely to reallocate inventory into a lower bucket. Whether or not they actually do it, when they do it if they do it, and which buckets they reallocate inventory to are no sure thing and the best anyone can do is educated guessing.

In any case, it looks like they have reallocated inventory. All dates in April for the TE, except three, now have 5 Bedrooms, the entire inventory, available at the 5th bucket, $1951,down from the 6th bucket, $2216. The three dates with higher prices are 4/1, 4 Bedrooms at 6th bucket ($2216), 2/22, 4 Bedrooms at 6th bucket ($2216) and 4/4, 3 Bedrooms at 7th bucket ($2523). The situation is now reversed, with the SWC in April being mostly in the 6th bucket of $2216 with a few dates being in the 7th bucket, $2523.

Since this inventory is 11 months out, it looks to me like somebody or something zigged when they should have zagged when they released it, because it looks like almost a wholesale reversal between the two trains on very recently released inventory.

Finally, "Eaglet" and/or "Eaglette" are derisive diminutives because the Eagle is a crappy train. The leading contender for "worst long distance train". Plus it is short.

zephyr17, I appreciate you trying to help me understand. I know some people will get tired of trying to explain things to others. So, if you are tired of trying to explain what you are talking about, I will understand if you ignore my questions and let someone else answer. I have no clue when you say, the 5th bucket, the 6th bucket, the 7th bucket. I always thought the buckets were labled low, middle & high. Also if you will, can you explain this statment you made......"All dates in April for the TE, except three, now have 5 Bedrooms, the entire inventory, available at the 5th bucket, $1951,down from the 6th bucket, $2216. The three dates with higher prices are 4/1, 4 Bedrooms at 6th bucket ($2216), 2/22, 4 Bedrooms at 6th bucket ($2216) and 4/4, 3 Bedrooms at 7th bucket ($2523)." How do you know how much inventory a car has available, is there a way I can find this out? Please dont think Im ignorant. All I like to do is ride the trains. I call the ride a vacation, to get to my vacation location. Im beginning to see there is much to learn. Thanks for all your help.

 

[zephyr17]

zephyr17, I appreciate you trying to help me understand. I know some people will get tired of trying to explain things to others. So, if you are tired of trying to explain what you are talking about, I will understand if you ignore my questions and let someone else answer. I have no clue when you say, the 5th bucket, the 6th bucket, the 7th bucket. I always thought the buckets were labled low, middle & high. Also if you will, can you explain this statment you made......"All dates in April for the TE, except three, now have 5 Bedrooms, the entire inventory, available at the 5th bucket, $1951,down from the 6th bucket, $2216. The three dates with higher prices are 4/1, 4 Bedrooms at 6th bucket ($2216), 2/22, 4 Bedrooms at 6th bucket ($2216) and 4/4, 3 Bedrooms at 7th bucket ($2523)." How do you know how much inventory a car has available, is there a way I can find this out? Please dont think Im ignorant. All I like to do is ride the trains. I call the ride a vacation, to get to my vacation location. Im beginning to see there is much to learn. Thanks for all your help.

1. There used to be five yield management buckets. We generally used low, mid-low, mid, mid-high and high to describe them. Now many trains have eight buckets and that nomenclature falls down apart from the lowest and highest. I don't think we've generally settled on what to call the eight buckets yet. I just numbered them from lowest to highest, as that makes sense to me and seems somewhat intuitive.
2. The total inventory on the train is # of rooms per type in a car x number of cars. I know the typical consists, and the car types. Standard Superliner sleepers have 5 Bedooms. The Eagle only had one sleeper, the SW Chief had two. So the total inventory of Bedrooms on each departure is 5 on the Eagle and 10 on the SW Chief.
3. One of the nicest features of railsforless.us, aside from being able to get up to 45 days worth of prices at one go, is they show the total number of rooms available at current bucket. That is unavailable on Amtrak.com. Knowing the number of open rooms is good to know because you know the actual availability at the current price and also have a metric to gauge how sales are going and the likelihood of a reallocation to lower buckets if current bucket is high (ish).

Prior to having that feature of railsforless.us pointed out to me, I ran dummy reservations for up to 8 passengers (the max), trying to get each passenger in a room. That technique is still useful for finding what the next open bucket will be when there are 3 or fewer rooms at the current bucket.

Trying to find and grab halfway decent sleeper prices is a battle and it helps to have all the ammo you can get.

 

[Sidney]

Regarding the Texas Eagle from Chicago to LA, I mentioned in an earlier post that up until a year ago low bucket was $623 and that fare was available on many dates. I have no idea what low bucket is now, but the lowest I can find for the next 11 months is $989, obviously a medium to high bucket. At that price I will not ride. Why isn’t there any low buckets available anymore?

 

[Keith1951]

1. There used to be five yield management buckets. We generally used low, mid-low, mid, mid-high and high to describe them. Now many trains have eight buckets and that nomenclature falls down apart from the lowest and highest. I don't think we've generally settled on what to call the eight buckets yet. I just numbered them from lowest to highest, as that makes sense to me and seems somewhat intuitive.
2. The total inventory on the train is # of rooms per type in a car x number of cars. I know the typical consists, and the car types. Standard Superliner sleepers have 5 Bedooms. The Eagle only had one sleeper, the SW Chief had two. So the total inventory of Bedrooms on each departure is 5 on the Eagle and 10 on the SW Chief.
3. One of the nicest features of railsforless.us, aside from being able to get up to 45 days worth of prices at one go, is they show the total number of rooms available at current bucket. That is unavailable on Amtrak.com. Knowing the number of open rooms is good to know because you know the actual availability at the current price and also have a metric to gauge how sales are going and the likelihood of a reallocation to lower buckets if current bucket is high (ish).

Prior to having that feature of railsforless.us pointed out to me, I ran dummy reservations for up to 8 passengers (the max), trying to get each passenger in a room. That technique is still useful for finding what the next open bucket will be when there are 3 or fewer rooms at the current bucket.

Trying to find and grab halfway decent sleeper prices is a battle and it helps to have all the ammo you can g

Does the Eagle always have one sleeper?

 

[Bob Dylan]

Does the Eagle always have one sleeper?

Since Am-Management cut off the Eagles wings by turning it into a 4 car consist, ( CCC, 2 Coaches,1 Sleeper)the answer is Yes .

 

[joelkfla]

Regarding the Texas Eagle from Chicago to LA, I mentioned in an earlier post that up until a year ago low bucket was $623 and that fare was available on many dates. I have no idea what low bucket is now, but the lowest I can find for the next 11 months is $989, obviously a medium to high bucket. At that price I will not ride. Why isn’t there any low buckets available anymore?

Because Amtrak thinks they can sell them at the higher fare.

 

[zephyr17]

Does the Eagle always have one sleeper?

Amtrak doesn't vary consists much. Some trains have an off season versus peak season variance, but not the Eagle these days.

IIRC, it may have run the LA sleeper as a second sleeper CHI-SAS before COVID, not sure. It hasn't since then, though. There's never been more than one CHI-SAS-LAX.

 

[zephyr17]

Because Amtrak thinks they can sell them at the higher fare.

And, based on complete lack of availability through June, they appear to be doing so.

 

[Keith1951]

Amtrak doesn't vary consists much. Some trains have an off season versus peak season variance, but not the Eagle these days.

IIRC, it may have run the LA sleeper as a second sleeper CHI-SAS before COVID, not sure. It hasn't since then, though. There's never been more than one CHI-SAS-LAX.

I want to thank you again for your help. I think I'm going with the SWC even though at this time its about $250 more for a bedroom for 2 seniors on our date. I'm reading too much negative input with the TE. Plus, the fact its traditional dining all the way from CHI - LAX. I'm still going to check every day to see if the prices on the SWC change any. BTW, what does IIRC mean in your last reply?

 

[zephyr17]

I want to thank you again for your help. I think I'm going with the SWC even though at this time its about $250 more for a bedroom for 2 seniors on our date. I'm reading too much negative input with the TE. Plus, the fact its traditional dining all the way from CHI - LAX. I'm still going to check every day to see if the prices on the SWC change any. BTW, what does IIRC mean in your last reply?

Standard internet shorthand, "If I Recall Correctly". Like LOL, Laughing Out Loud. Or BTW.

Right now there is one whole car worth of Bedrooms, five, available at $2216 single adult pricing (6th bucket) on 4/15/2025. That translates to $2448 for two seniors. To me, that indicates the Bedrooms on that departure are wholly unsold at this point, with the remaining 5 rooms currently allocated to higher buckets. Unless you are dead set on scoring Bedroom E in car 330, there is no need to act now or any time soon.

The yield management practices on the SWC/TE seem very static compared to other trains, like the Builder. Even considering that, at this point if it were me, I'd follow my usual approach of checking very occasionally, then at about 6 months from planned departure start checking very regularly, as much as daily, no less than weekly. On every check, I'd use railsforless.us so I could see the entire available inventory offered at current bucket.

 

[trimetbusfan]

I want to thank you again for your help. I think I'm going with the SWC even though at this time its about $250 more for a bedroom for 2 seniors on our date. I'm reading too much negative input with the TE. Plus, the fact its traditional dining all the way from CHI - LAX. I'm still going to check every day to see if the prices on the SWC change any. BTW, what does IIRC mean in your last reply?

Also, I see Zephyr replied to this, but I just wanted to politely add that if all this talk about buckets and inventory is overwhelming, you do not need to know all of this information. 90% of Amtrak travelers are not aware of the buckets. Railforless.us is a great resource, however.

Definitely would recommend the SWC over TE from CHI-LAX.
IIRC = if i remember correctly

 

[zephyr17]

90% of Amtrak travelers are not aware of the buckets.

I'd say it is probably closer to 99% .

One doesn't need to know about yield management buckets and inventory allocation. The usefulness of that information is in evaluating how good or bad an offered price is and being able to make a semi-educated guess on the probability or improbability of a future change in your favor. Tools such as niemi's chart and railsforless.us (and Amsnag in the past) are invaluable in helping with that.

I ride relatively a lot and in sleepers for any overnight. I was kind of forced into trying to gather as much information as possible in simple self-defense from Amtrak's increasingly sophisticated and aggressive yield management.

@Keith1951 asked why the prices were where they were and the chances they'd go down. I opted not to just give him a fish, but the resources and possible approaches needed to try to catch them.

Things were a lot simpler when Amtrak nearly always put a couple rooms in low bucket at inventory release. Back then all I knew or had to know was book early=low price. Those days are long past

 

[Keith1951]

Thanks Trimetbusfan. Im saying this nicely so dont think Im being mean. I dont want to be in the 90%. I want to learn some of what the 10% know. The past week or so, I have learned a little about buckets, I know why the TE is called the Eaglette, I know its better to take the SWC rather than the TE, I know about Flex vs Traditional meals, I know Railforless is a good place to search. I won't ever know it all. Im sure when you started you were in the 10%. Thanks again for the reply.

 

[Bob Dylan]

Amtrak doesn't vary consists much. Some trains have an off season versus peak season variance, but not the Eagle these days.

IIRC, it may have run the LA sleeper as a second sleeper CHI-SAS before COVID, not sure. It hasn't since then, though. There's never been more than one CHI-SAS-LAX.

The Eagle used to have 3 Sleepers on #421/#422 days between CHI and SAS.

Transdorm, #21/# 22 Sleeper and #421/#422 Sleeper.

It also had a Bag Car, a Sightseer Lounge, and on some days, 4 Coaches ( counting the CHI-STL Cutout Coach)

 

[trimetbusfan]

Thanks Trimetbusfan. Im saying this nicely so dont think Im being mean. I dont want to be in the 90%. I want to learn some of what the 10% know. The past week or so, I have learned a little about buckets, I know why the TE is called the Eaglette, I know its better to take the SWC rather than the TE, I know about Flex vs Traditional meals, I know Railforless is a good place to search. I won't ever know it all. Im sure when you started you were in the 10%. Thanks again for the reply.

You are in the right place then!

 

[joelkfla]

New high bucket on Silver Star for bedroom between NYP & MIA: $2114.

 

[Sidney]

Over $2000 for a one night trip. Yet, people will pay it.

 

[Bob Dylan]

Over $2000 for a one night trip. Yet, people will pay it.

And the Hits just keep on coming?

 

[Keith1951]

Standard internet shorthand, "If I Recall Correctly". Like LOL, Laughing Out Loud. Or BTW.

Right now there is one whole car worth of Bedrooms, five, available at $2216 single adult pricing (6th bucket) on 4/15/2025. That translates to $2448 for two seniors. To me, that indicates the Bedrooms on that departure are wholly unsold at this point, with the remaining 5 rooms currently allocated to higher buckets. Unless you are dead set on scoring Bedroom E in car 330, there is no need to act now or any time soon.

The yield management practices on the SWC/TE seem very static compared to other trains, like the Builder. Even considering that, at this point if it were me, I'd follow my usual approach of checking very occasionally, then at about 6 months from planned departure start checking very regularly, as much as daily, no less than weekly. On every check, I'd use railsforless.us so I could see the entire available inventory offered at current bucket.

I just tried railsforless and see the SWC which takes 43 hours from CHI - LAX. But I also see a SWC / Carl Sandburg which takes 50 hours to get to LAX and costs more. I never saw a SWC / Carl Sandburg on the Amtrak website. What is that, is it the same route and why the extra cost?

 

[jis]

I just checked and got this:


I guess I don't look as rich as @joelkfla and they offered me a cheaper deal They are not cheap by any means but they are not at discount Business Class round trip air fares to India (taking three changes and 48 hours instead of direct and 16 hours and all that) level

 

[zephyr17]

I just tried railsforless and see the SWC which takes 43 hours from CHI - LAX. But I also see a SWC / Carl Sandburg which takes 50 hours to get to LAX and costs more. I never saw a SWC / Carl Sandburg on the Amtrak website. What is that, is it the same route and why the extra cost?

The Carl Sandberg, train 381, is an Illinois corridor train between Chicago and Quincy. That routing is to take 381 much earlier in the morning to Galesburg and connect to the SW Chief later in the day at Galesburg. It follows the same tracks as the SW Chief does, earlier in the day.

If you want to hang out in Galesburg for 7 hours, it's the way to go.

It appears on railsforless.us because it is a result that Amtrak itself presents for CHI-LAX. On Amtrak.com it shows as a "multiple train" option on the initial result page. Underlying railsforless is Amtrak's internal API which railsforless.us somehow accesses.

As far as I am concerned, those additional results are just noise that I do not want or need to see. Railsforless.us has a filter function that can be accessed once the initial results are returned. Press the "routes" button and deselect all options except the ones you want to see, in this case the Chief or the Chief and Eagle.

It is more expensive because it is selecting a Business Class seat on 381 CHI-GBB to go along with the roomette GBB-LAX.

 

[Keith1951]

1. There used to be five yield management buckets. We generally used low, mid-low, mid, mid-high and high to describe them. Now many trains have eight buckets and that nomenclature falls down apart from the lowest and highest. I don't think we've generally settled on what to call the eight buckets yet. I just numbered them from lowest to highest, as that makes sense to me and seems somewhat intuitive.
2. The total inventory on the train is # of rooms per type in a car x number of cars. I know the typical consists, and the car types. Standard Superliner sleepers have 5 Bedooms. The Eagle only had one sleeper, the SW Chief had two. So the total inventory of Bedrooms on each departure is 5 on the Eagle and 10 on the SW Chief.
3. One of the nicest features of railsforless.us, aside from being able to get up to 45 days worth of prices at one go, is they show the total number of rooms available at current bucket. That is unavailable on Amtrak.com. Knowing the number of open rooms is good to know because you know the actual availability at the current price and also have a metric to gauge how sales are going and the likelihood of a reallocation to lower buckets if current bucket is high (ish).

Prior to having that feature of railsforless.us pointed out to me, I ran dummy reservations for up to 8 passengers (the max), trying to get each passenger in a room. That technique is still useful for finding what the next open bucket will be when there are 3 or fewer rooms at the current bucket.

Trying to find and grab halfway decent sleeper prices is a battle and it helps to have all the ammo you can get.

I just tried that dummy reservation, I think. I picked June 24th, bedrooms on SWC, CHI-LAX. I started the booking with 2 people in 1 room, it was accepting my booking, then 4 people in 2 rooms, still accepting, when I did 6 in 3 rooms and 8 in 4 rooms, the bedrooms were gone, all that was left was roomettes. Did that tell me there was only 2 bedrooms left?

 

[zephyr17]

I just tried that dummy reservation, I think. I picked June 24th, bedrooms on SWC, CHI-LAX. I started the booking with 2 people in 1 room, it was accepting my booking, then 4 people in 2 rooms, still accepting, when I did 6 in 3 rooms and 8 in 4 rooms, the bedrooms were gone, all that was left was roomettes. Did that tell me there was only 2 bedrooms left?

If there were more Bedrooms left, allocated to a higher bucket, it would have displayed 3 Bedrooms for 6 passengers, all 3 at the higher bucket price. So, yes, those results indicate just two Bedrooms left on that departure.

 

[trimetbusfan]

I just checked and got this:

View attachment 36836
I guess I don't look as rich as @joelkfla and they offered me a cheaper deal They are not cheap by any means but they are not at discount Business Class round trip air fares to India (taking three changes and 48 hours instead of direct and 16 hours and all that) level

These are fares from ORL to NYP on the 22nd vs NYP to MIA, might explain the difference in fares.

 

[jis]

These are fares from ORL to NYP on the 22nd vs NYP to MIA, might explain the difference in fares.

Indeed! I always thought that anything less than $1200 for Miami to Orlando was darned unreasonable