Something I had thought about, considering Amtrak's current equipment situation: Is Amtrak one bad wreck away (whether it be Superlines or Viewliners) from having to cut back service on a route(s), or even suspend a route(s) all together? Is their equipment inventory that badly stretched? I know that there aren't any extra Viewliners, and the Superliner situation isn't much better.
I can describe what I know.
- When a Heritage dining car fails, Amtrak presses an Amfleet II cafe into service.
- When a Viewliner sleeping car fails, Amtrak often runs a car short and reschedules people.
- Horizons are sometimes substituted for Amfleets on short notice.
- Superliner Sightseer Lounge is often substituted for the Heritage "Pacific Parlour Cars".
- Amfleet and Heritage cafes (!!!) are sometimes substituted for failed Heritage baggage cars.
So, before you see any trains cancelled due to lack of Superliners, you'll see trains running short a sleeper or short a lounge. I've never seen this happen with the Superliners; there appear to be enough to make sure that every train has a full consist even if there are unexpected failures. (And apparently there are enough extra Sightseer Lounges to replace PPCs in a pinch.) And we *have* had some major wrecks of Superliners recently (Nevada, for example).
This shows that the really tight rolling stock situation is specifically with the Heritage equipment, and to a lesser extent the Viewliners and Amfleets. There will be enough Superliners for the current services for a while yet. It would be more valuable to exercise options on the CAF order and get more Viewliners.
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However, there have also been shortages of P42s; the Texas Eagle, which should have two, is routinely sent out with one, and it's pretty common for other trains to be short an engine. The P40 rehabs don't seem to have been sufficient to alleviate the shortages. F59PHIs have been pressed into long-distance service on occasion.
For the western long-distance trains, the motive power situation is probably more urgent than the rolling stock situation. Diesel locomotives have a shorter lifespan than rolling stock in any case.
Amtrak expects its diesels to have a commercial life (when you *should* replace them for maximum profit) of 20 years. 30 years is the standard depreciation period or "useful life" for diesels, and they really don't last much longer than 30 years if they're heavily used. Some other organizations consider diesels to only have a useful life of 20 years, and try to replace them after 10 years! Theoretically they could be gutted and repowered (like the AEM electrics were), but most of the cost is in the parts which have to be replaced, and you generally want to redesign the entire layout if you're replacing the engine. Companies which advertise rebuilding of engines only promise to extend the lifespan to 50 years...
The first P42s are going to be 30 years old in 2016; the P32AC-DMs will turn 30 in 2015; the P40s turned 30 in 2013; the P32s in 2011. The F59PHIs are only a little bit newer and will turn 30 in 2018. Amtrak's diesel locomotives are going to be dying soon, and the situation is rather urgent.
The multistate order for new locomotives is supposed to start delivering in 2016, but it's for a fairly small number of locomotives. Amtrak has a large number of options on this order and hopefully Amtrak will be able to exercise them.
(By contrast, Amtrak considers passenger cars to have a commercial life of 30 years and a useful life of 40 years, but it's quite straightforward to keep them going substantially longer than that, particularly if they get a mid-life refurbishment; the Heritage cars are only now falling apart after 60 years, and were doing pretty well at age 50.
Amtrak considers electric locomotives to have a commercial life of 25 years and a useful life of 30 years, but other organizations expect electric locomotives to last 40 years or more. Electrics are more durable.
Switchers have light duty cycles and low top speeds so they last much longer than road diesels. I'm not entirely sure of all the reasons, but fast, high-horsepower road diesel locomotives seem to have the shortest lifespan of anything on the tracks.)
