What is going on with Auto Train Pricing

[neroden]

RyanS;

you keep missing the point -- the ***CURRENT*** ridership numbers do not reflect this.

Wait until the next big fare hike and / or amenities cut arrive.

This is why I say -- ridership would decline *IN THE NEXT 2 YEARS*.

On the NEC, there is SO MUCH suppressed demand that ridership isn't going to decline noticeably.

Even if Amtrak is at a price point where it's only for the elite, there isn't even enough service to supply the whole of the elite in the NEC! And there isn't any service which is preferable for the elite (the old airplane shuttles are no fun, and not that fast thanks to the out-of-town airports and security delays).

The Auto Train is quite a different matter. Its market is substantially more fragile. As I mentioned in the other thread, we'll see the drop in ridership in roughly March 2015. Auto Train gets once-a-year customers, and after one bad experience, they'll quit riding. Since the bad experiences started this March, the disappearance of routine customers will start next March.

 

[tonys96]

Well stated GML. I have learned to keep my opinion to myself usually. I will post the facts that I have learned from 41 years of railroad time (40 Amtrak), also can rely on over 135 years of rail experience in my generation and the previous generation (wife, mother, sister, and father in law all railroaders).

I would like to add that I also have met Ryan and totally agree with Guest_SANSR_.

Since this seems to be the cheer leading for Ryan thread, I'll add that I met Henry at the Texas mini gathering a while back, and found him to be a very nice, respectable and decent person, who has a strong fondness for trains of all types, from Amtrak to local commuter trains and old trolleys.We also met Saxman, DA, Misty, JimHudson, and others, good people all. We are blessed to have had the honor of sharing a table and breaking bread with these good folks. Had a great time with peace and harmony prevailing throughout.

Thanks for the support Tonys. I enjoyed meeting everyone at the mini also. I have kinda quit responding to all the attacks on here. Besides it's spring time in Texas and I am outside most of the time.

No problemo, just call it like it is. Beautiful weather here in North Texas, but you are in Houston.....always too muggy there for me!

 

[neroden]

Any business that is operating at by far the best ROI it has ever had is a business that is being operated correctly.

This isn't true. When you have a strong economic "tailwind" for your sector, you can have grotesque mismanagement and still be growing like gangbusters with great ROI.

Essentially, there are some economic trends which are so strong that they *overcome* severe mismanagement -- "can't lose" situations. If there's competition, you *usually* see the more-poorly-managed competitors lose to the better-managed ones, but in areas with little or no competition (natural monopolies and the like), even that isn't true. I can dig up business cases out of history.

The "tailwind" for a shift to train travel is MASSIVE right now. I think the best summing up of it was something I saw on some advocacy website... "Trains: a choice Americans want". The pent-up demand levels are absurd. Many public transit agencies have gotten to a point where they can't fail with urban rail construction, even if they pick a terrible route and operate it badly.

 

[user 1215]

This is from a couple that own a private plane, and drive Teslas............

I think the Teslas are great. Only, you can't drive one from coast to coast. And that's ridiculous.

Because that's a common use case for cars.

Ok, smart alec. You can't even take a family vacation outside of California in one.

 

[guest_nj_2]

neroden:

I hear what you are saying, but it seems to me that the situation is the other way around.

Shouldn't the indicator of the "suppressed demand" be how often trains are SOLD OUT ?

NEC trains are packed solid most of the time, but are rarely completely sold out (except around

major holidays). Last-minute tickets are expensive as hell, but still available to those who is willing

to pay for them.

Auto Train, on the other hand, is frequently sold out months in advance. Completely sold out.

Even those who are willing to shell $550 for a single coach ticket can't get it.

Isn't THIS the sign of "suppressed demand" ? Those people who are currently cut-off because AT

is sold out will substitute those who are "fed-up" with recent AT amenities cuts and stop riding.

 

[Ryan]

Ok, smart alec. You can't even take a family vacation outside of California in one.

You can't?

Using only Tesla's Supercharger network, you can already drive cross country:

By the end of the year, most of the country will be covered:

And the few remaining gaps will be filled by the end of next year:

You were saying?

 

[Paulus]

This is from a couple that own a private plane, and drive Teslas............

I think the Teslas are great. Only, you can't drive one from coast to coast. And that's ridiculous.

Because that's a common use case for cars.

Ok, smart alec. You can't even take a family vacation outside of California in one.

Yes you can.

neroden:

I hear what you are saying, but it seems to me that the situation is the other way around.

Shouldn't the indicator of the "suppressed demand" be how often trains are SOLD OUT ?

NEC trains are packed solid most of the time, but are rarely completely sold out (except around

major holidays). Last-minute tickets are expensive as hell, but still available to those who is willing

to pay for them.

Auto Train, on the other hand, is frequently sold out months in advance. Completely sold out.

Even those who are willing to shell $550 for a single coach ticket can't get it.

Isn't THIS the sign of "suppressed demand" ? Those people who are currently cut-off because AT

is sold out will substitute those who are "fed-up" with recent AT amenities cuts and stop riding.

Completely selling out on a corridor with tens of thousands of seats available for a particular day is going to be a significantly harder task than completely selling out a train with, what, 600 seats? That's ignoring, of course, the significantly higher fares on the NEC compared to those of the Auto Train. It's also ignoring that the NEC, having many more destinations, will have space open up more frequently, even if the train is otherwise almost SRO.

 

[Ryan]

Yes you can.

Thanks, I should have posted the link - that's where I got the maps I posted from.

 

[The Whistler]

Pullman Standard last manufactured Superliners in 1979-1982. That would make the oldest Superliners 35 years old. None were made by Budd but they too exited the railroad car business around that time. If Amtrak continues to believe that they can keep charging top dollar for a ride on an old rail car with even the basic amenities eliminated, they are mistaken.

 

[rrdude]

Pullman Standard last manufactured Superliners in 1979-1982. That would make the oldest Superliners 35 years old. None were made by Budd but they too exited the railroad car business around that time. If Amtrak continues to believe that they can keep charging top dollar for a ride on an old rail car with even the basic amenities eliminated, they are mistaken.

The initial cars were built by Pullman-Standard in the late 1970s and a second order was built in the mid-1990s by Pullman's successor, Bombardier Transportation

 

[user 1215]

Yes you can.

Thanks, I should have posted the link - that's where I got the maps I posted from.

Is it really a vacation if you have to stop every 250 miles and spend the night? Or to take two weeks to cross the country? (For the 65 kw/h version. Yes, the 85 kw/h can be charged during a one hour break period.)

Might as well take the train!

 

[guest_nj_2]

Of course it's much easier to sell-out AT than a whole day-worth of NEC trains.

Nobody argues about that.

Still -- the fact that these NEC trains are NOT completely sold out indicates that

the demand *per se* is NOT "suppressed".

I think what neroden wanted to say was that there exists huge pent-up unsatisfied

demand for NEC travel *AT LOWER PRICING POINTS*.

This is absolutely true.

Unfortunately, additional price hikes on top of the hikes already administered will

not alleviate this situation.

 

[Ryan]

Is it really a vacation if you have to stop every 250 miles and spend the night? Or to take two weeks to cross the country?

Might as well take the train!

You don't have to "stop every 250 miles and spend the night.

From the link that you clearly didn't bother reading:

They're also going to start rolling out newer models that charge in 1/3 less time, so you can get that 80% charge in less than a half hour.

Might as well get a clue!

 

[Eric S]

Of course it's much easier to sell-out AT than a whole day-worth of NEC trains.

Nobody argues about that.

Still -- the fact that these NEC trains are NOT completely sold out indicates that

the demand *per se* is NOT "suppressed".

I think what neroden wanted to say was that there exists huge pent-up unsatisfied

demand for NEC travel *AT LOWER PRICING POINTS*.

This is absolutely true.

Unfortunately, additional price hikes on top of the hikes already administered will

not alleviate this situation.

You would prefer that Amtrak charge lower fares so that trains are effectively sold out more often?

(I write "effectively sold out" because obviously a train may be sold out for a portion of the trip, but still have seats available between other points. For instance, in the NEC trains may be actually sold out through NJ but still have seats available from Philadelphia and south/west and from New York and north/east.)

 

[Allypet]

Does anyone know if I can bike share from NYC to the Lorton station for my AT trip?

 

[guest_nj_2]

Eric S:

Yes, I would actually prefer that option (say, flat pricing NY-WAS at $49, regardless of when a ticket is purchased),

even if this results in trains sold out more frequently.

I believe this was the system before 2009 (when Amtrak changed to an airline-like "yield-management" concept).

Do I expect this to happen? NO. Money rules, and nobody cares about archaic concepts of "equity" and "promoting

train culture".

 

[Paulus]

Eric S:

Yes, I would actually prefer that option (say, flat pricing NY-WAS at $49, regardless of when a ticket is purchased),

even if this results in trains sold out more frequently.

I believe this was the system before 2009 (when Amtrak changed to an airline-like "yield-management" concept).

Do I expect this to happen? NO. Money rules, and nobody cares about archaic concepts of "equity" and "promoting

train culture".

If you want to get rid of yield management, the flat rate tickets are going to be priced higher.

 

[rrdude]

:giggle:

Does anyone know if I can bike share from NYC to the Lorton station for my AT trip?

Your kidding, right?

 

[guest_nj_2]

OK, so start, say with flat $80 fare.

- lock it for a year

- collect statistics during the year

- trains that sell out often get increase to $90

- trains that run half-empty get decrease to $70

- lock the revised pricing for a year

- repeat

There is nothing wrong to charge different prices for different TRAINS:

- some trains are more convenient (say, midday train on Sunday)

- some trains make fewer stops and run faster

It's the system when the price depends on the *TIME YOU BUY* that I despise.

 

[SarahZ]

It's the system when the price depends on the *TIME YOU BUY* that I despise.

You mean like airlines, hotels, rental cars, amusement parks, and every other business that handles tourism and travel?

 

[afigg]

Does anyone know if I can bike share from NYC to the Lorton station for my AT trip?

The rental rates would get rather pricey after the first few hours southbound from NYC I would think. After a day, you would own the Citi bike. Cheaper to buy your own bike, sell it in DC or Lorton to someone...

 

[Ryan]

To be fair, I agree completely that Amtrak *should* be run that way. My MARC ticket to DC is always the same price. As is a WMATA trip.

But in order for that to happen, Amtrak has to be completely overhauled to be a public service, not a business (and funded appropriately). That would be AWESOME!!!

Sadly, that ain't gonna happen, and Amtrak just changing their fare structure isn't going to bring it about.

 

[afigg]

OK, so start, say with flat $80 fare.

- lock it for a year

- collect statistics during the year

- trains that sell out often get increase to $90

- trains that run half-empty get decrease to $70

- lock the revised pricing for a year

- repeat

It's the system when the price depends on the *TIME YOU BUY* that I despise.

There is no need to do this. Amtrak revenue model could very likely show just how much revenue this approach would lose. Amtrak can utilize the bucket pricing approach and has been able to generate increased revenue because on the NEC and for the LD trains, peak demand is often hitting the limits of capacity. Amtrak is not the final decision maker of prices for the state supported corridor trains, so take your beef on those up with the state agencies.

If you despise a variable price based on the time you buy and demand, then it must rather difficult to travel. Because just about everyone. other than subsidized local transit systems, have demand based pricing.

Just for the record, we have been discussing here for years when Amtrak might hit the ceiling in ridership as they incrementally increase the ticket prices to find that point of maximum revenue. So far, for the NEC Regionals and Acelas they have not. For the LD trains, it is more difficult to tell.

 

[guest_nj_2]

Oh, boy.

Please, nobody argues against the ***DEMAND***-based pricing.

If one train is more popular than the other, charge double for that train.

BUT CHARGE THAT DOUBLE RATE ANY DAY OF THE YEAR, WHETHER IT'S

2 DAYS BEFORE DEPARTURE OR 200 DAYS BEFORE DEPARTURE.

 

[guest_nj_2]

By the way, hotels and amusement parks do *NOT* necessarily charge depending on when you buy.

Hotels mainly differentiate by room type and amenities.

Amusement parks differentiate by the number of days that you buy.

Airlines, yes, they started this "yield-management" nonsense and are widely despised for that.